The OECD's published Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) series via FRED stopped updating in January 2024 (28+ months stale at time of writing); OECD's own SDMX REST API also returns 404/429 for these dataflows. To deliver a useful real-time global cycle map, this engine constructs a synthetic CLI per country from equity-market momentum, which is a well-documented leading indicator typically leading economic activity by 6-12 months.
Inputs: Yahoo Finance daily price history for each country's primary equity index
(e.g. ^GSPC for USA, ^N225 for Japan, ^GDAXI for Germany,
^FTSE for UK, ^BSESN for India, 000001.SS for China,
EPOL for Poland, ECH for Chile). For USA + China, the equity composite
is blended 75/25 with fresh OECD Consumer/Business Confidence (still fresh on FRED for those two:
USACSCICP02STSAM, CHNBSCICP02STSAM).
Composite formula:
composite_pct = 0.35×ret_12m + 0.25×dist_200ma + 0.25×ret_3m + 0.15×ret_1m;
CLI = 100 + composite_pct × 0.5, capped to [80, 120]. Each country is then classified
into EXPANSION, AT_RISK, RECESSION, or RECOVERY based on the
CLI level (vs. trend of 100) and the 3-month return direction. The breadth across countries —
GDP-weighted — drives the global phase, which propagates into the Khalid Index,
risk dashboard, allocator, morning brief, and AI chat.
Sources: Yahoo Finance Chart API (real-time equity)
· FRED · OECD CCI/BCI (USA + CHN supplements) ·
Engine: justhodl-global-business-cycle ·
Schedule: daily 12:00 UTC ·
S3 output: data/global-business-cycle.json · Schema 2.0 ·
Engine type: synthetic_equity_momentum