Global Business Cycle · History

CURRENT EXPANSION BREADTH

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vs 12mo ago: —

PEAK EXPANSION (2y)

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TROUGH EXPANSION (2y)

—%

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GLOBAL CLI · CURRENT

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range —

CURRENT GLOBAL PHASE

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— weeks

PHASE TRANSITIONS (full history)

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latest: —

Phase Transitions confirmed = persisted ≥ 3 weeks

Phase Mix Trajectory —

Expansion Recovery At Risk Recession GDP-weighted % of classified countries

Global Average CLI —

GDP-weighted average CLI Trend baseline (100)

Country Sparklines · 5y CLI trajectory — countries

All regions

Country Lead/Lag Ranking cross-correlation with global aggregate · max lag ±26w

#	Country	Lead/Lag (weeks)	Peak r	Phase

Click a country to see its correlation curve. Peak position = best lead/lag, peak height = strength.

Click a country row to view correlation curve

Leads global (cycle turns first) ~0 lag (moves with aggregate) Lags global (cycle turns later) USA + large weights have inflated lag-0 corr (self-influence)

Phase-Conditional Forward Returns 3-month forward equity returns bucketed by cycle phase

Top historical performers by phase — when the cycle is in each state, these countries paid the highest mean forward 3-month returns. Decision-relevant for tilting tactical exposure.

Country drilldown: — observations across history

Expansion At Risk Recession Recovery Caveat: overlapping forward windows — stdev/hit-rate are optimistic vs non-overlapping draws

Multi-Country Comparison click sparklines to add/remove

Selected: