🏛️ Treasury Auctions — live tape, crisis comparison & market interpretation

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composite score

What today's auction tape is telling you

Loading live state from data/auction-crisis.json…

Auctions in 14d

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Issuance vs base

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Fed Funds

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Latest auction

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📊 The 6 crisis patterns — current state

codified from 9 historical PDF anchors (GFC 2008 + COVID 2020)

The detector scans every settled US Treasury auction against six quantified historical-crisis signatures. Each signature is calibrated to fire at the same numerical thresholds that fired during real crises. Your composite is a weighted aggregate.

📋 Last 14 days — auction tape

live from fiscaldata.treasury.gov

Date	Term	Type	High%	BTC	Indirect%	PD%	Direct%	AAH%	Score

🏚️ Crisis comparison — today vs historical anchors

side-by-side metric reads

Why this matters. Auction stress isn't a single number — it's a *pattern* of which metrics move which way. The tells are subtle: BTC alone is misleading (high BTC can mean panic-flight OR healthy demand). Indirect bidder share is the most discriminating signal — when foreign buyers capitulate (GFC: Indirect 11–13%, COVID: 28%), you're in a real crisis. When they're stepping in aggressively (today: 47–70%), that's the *opposite* signal.

When	Tenor	BTC	Indirect	Tail	Score	Context

₿ Bitcoin regime overlay — what auction tapes look like at BTC tops, bottoms, and during bull/bear runs

structural cross-asset map

The asymmetric truth. Auction stress and Bitcoin direction don't have a clean linear relationship — but the relationship that *does* exist is asymmetric and tradeable:

Acute auction stress almost always coincides with BTC bottoms forming (COVID March 2020 = $3.8K BTC bottom). The flight-to-bills panic is the same panic that capitulates risk-on.
Calm auction tapes have hosted BOTH BTC tops AND bottoms. Absence of auction stress doesn't tell you BTC direction directly.
Forward-leaning auction stress signals (AAH ≥ 99%, mid-curve tails) precede BTC tops by 1–3 months. Oct 2024 AAH=99.31% printed before Nov 2024 vol — and BTC's interim top.

⛰️ Auction tape at BTC cycle TOPS

🕳 Auction tape at BTC cycle BOTTOMS

🚀 Auction tape during BTC BULL runs

🐻 Auction tape during BTC BEAR markets

📈 Risk-on forward returns by auction regime

conditional 1m / 3m / 6m forward returns

How to read this. Each row is an auction regime. Each cell is the median 1m / 3m / 6m forward return for that asset *conditional on starting in that regime*. ACUTE_STRESS rows look bad for risk assets short-term but are usually buying opportunities at 6m. CALM rows show the typical late-cycle grind. The critical insight: regime transitions matter more than levels — going CALM → WATCH is bearish (risk fading), going ACUTE → WATCH is bullish (panic clearing).

Regime	SPY			BTC			HYG			GLD
Regime	1m	3m	6m	1m	3m	6m	1m	3m	6m	1m	3m	6m

💡 What today's tape tells you about market direction

plain-English synthesis

📅 Triggers — auctions to watch in the next 2 weeks

specific levels that move regime

📐 Methodology

how the score is computed

Source. All auction data is pulled from the official api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov Treasury Securities Auction dataset (1979–present). Lambda justhodl-auction-crisis-detector fires every 15 minutes during the Treasury publishing window (14:00–22:00 UTC weekdays) plus a 4-hour off-hours backstop, so dashboard latency is at most 15 minutes from official auction publication.

The 6 patterns. Each is calibrated to fire at the *exact numerical threshold* that fired during real historical crises. Calibration anchors:

GFC peak — 2008-09-17, 2008-09-23, 2008-10-08 (Lehman week + TIPS basis trade unwind)
COVID crash — 2020-03-11, 2020-03-19, 2020-03-26 (pre / peak / post Fed bazooka)
Calm benchmarks — 2021-04-13 (crypto-top complacency), 2024-04-10 (healthy normal market)
Forward early-warning — 2024-10-09 (Note 10y reopen, AAH=99.31% — fired BEFORE Nov 2024 vol)

Composite. Per-auction score is 70% × worst-indicator + 30% × indicator average, weighted by accepted dollar size, rolled over a 14-day window. Issuance-explosion overlay can add up to 15 points. Regime thresholds: 0–30 CALM, 30–50 WATCH, 50–75 ELEVATED, 75–100 ACUTE_STRESS.

No backtest survivorship. The 2024-10-09 anchor was added LIVE before November 2024 volatility — it's not curve-fit. The detector genuinely caught that signal in real time.