MACRO DATA
Composite nowcast · global manufacturing PMI · banking sector loans · BEA GDP & economic accounts
COMPOSITE NOWCAST
Weighted z-score from 7 FRED series · refreshed every 6h
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10-year historical replay (no look-ahead)
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SPY forward returns by regime · 10y replay
no look-ahead bias
For each historical month classified as regime R, SPY total return is computed at 1/3/6/12 months forward.
The current regime's row is highlighted — that's the historical track record of what to expect.
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GLOBAL MANUFACTURING PMI
Eurozone · Japan · UK · expansion vs contraction
SECURITIES & BANKING
Total loans · Business loans · Real estate loans · 1W
BEA · GDP & ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS
Bureau of Economic Analysis · National accounts · Personal income · Trade · Consumer spending