BONDS & YIELD CURVE
Live US Treasury curve, real rates, breakevens, and bond regime classification. Bonds are the price of money; their behavior tells you what equity, credit, FX, and commodities are about to do. Below: where we sit, what regime we're in, what assets historically outperform/underperform, and what would change the read.
KEY METRICS — THE FIVE THAT MATTER MOST
these are the diagnostic signals · everything else is confirmation
US TREASURY YIELD CURVE
solid = today · dashed = ~30 days ago · steepening / flattening / inversion
YIELD-CURVE SPREADS & CREDIT
curve shape + credit spreads + real rates · the bond market's recession signal
WHAT REGIME ARE WE IN — AND WHAT TYPICALLY HAPPENS NEXT
historical comparables & transition probabilities
RISK-ASSET PLAYBOOK FOR THIS REGIME
historical 6-month forward returns from comparable periods · winners + losers
TREASURY AUCTION CRISIS DETECTOR · SUMMARY
live read on auction stress · full detail →
WHAT WOULD FLIP THE REGIME
live trigger panel · these are what to watch over the next 1-4 weeks
📊 Cross-Asset Interpretation Overlay
how the current bond regime maps to BTC, equities, gold, and credit
Bond regime → asset playbook
| Bond regime | SPY response | BTC response | GLD response | HYG (credit) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXPANSION (curve steepening, real yields rising moderately) | +8 to +15% over 6m | +30 to +120% over 12m | Flat to mild + | Tight spreads, +5 to +8% |
| SLOWING (yields rangebound, real rates compressing) | +2 to +5% over 6m | Choppy, +5 to +25% | +5 to +12% | Spreads stable |
| FLIGHT-TO-QUALITY (curve inverting, vol spiking, real yields collapsing) | −5 to −15% over 3m | −20 to −50% short-term, BTC bottom catalyst | +10 to +20% | Spreads blow out, −5 to −12% |
| CONVEXITY UNWIND (long-end tail, AAH ≥ 90%, MOVE > 130) | −3 to −8% over 1m | Choppy then directional (depends on Fed response) | +5 to +10% | Yellow flag — watch for spillover |
Bond regime at historical inflection points
| When | Bond regime | 10y yield | 2s10s | What followed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2008 GFC peak | FLIGHT-TO-QUALITY (acute) | 3.66% | +193bp | SPY −37% in 6m, GLD +25%, HYG −30% |
| Mar 2020 COVID | FLIGHT-TO-QUALITY (acute) → EXPANSION | 0.54% | +39bp | BTC bottomed at $3.8K, then +1450% in 12m. Fed bazooka triggered transition. |
| 2021 zero-rate era | EXPANSION (overheated) | 1.45% | +125bp | BTC top $69K, SPY +28%, then 2022 bear market unfolded. |
| Oct 2024 (your detector caught this) | CONVEXITY UNWIND (early) | 4.18% | +15bp | AAH=99.31% on 10y reopen. Nov 2024 vol followed. BTC hit $108K Dec then corrected. |
| TODAY (live) | — (loading) | — | — | Auction tape composite: 17.1 / CALM. See full auction interpretation → |
Bond regime at major BTC inflection points
⛰️ BTC TOP — Nov 2021 ($69K)
Bond regime: EXPANSION → SLOWING transition
10y at 1.45%, real rates negative, curve flat. Bond market signaled overheating.
BTC fell 77% over 12 months as Fed pivoted hawkish.
⛰️ BTC TOP — Mar 2024 ($73K)
Bond regime: SLOWING (Fed hike cycle ending)
10y at 4.30%, curve still inverted but flattening. CONSOLIDATION peak — BTC pulled back 22% then resumed bull. +46% in 12m.
⛰️ BTC TOP — Dec 2024 ($108K)
Bond regime: CONVEXITY UNWIND (early)
AAH=99.31% on Oct 10y reopen. Detector flagged stress 6 weeks before peak. BTC corrected −12% in 30d, −25% in 90d.
🕳 BTC BOTTOM — Mar 2020 ($3.8K)
Bond regime: FLIGHT-TO-QUALITY (acute)
10y collapsed to 0.54%. Bond stress and BTC bottom were the SAME EVENT.
Fed bazooka cleared both. +1450% in 12m.
🕳 BTC BOTTOM — Nov 2022 ($15.6K)
Bond regime: SLOWING (peak Fed restrictiveness)
10y at 4.10%, curve deeply inverted. FTX-specific bottom, not bond-stress driven. BTC +140% in 12m.
🚀 BTC BULL — 2020-04 to 2021-11
Bond regime: EXPANSION (post-bazooka)
$7K → $69K (+886%). Started during acute stress, transitioned to overheating EXPANSION.
Curve steepening = liquidity flood = BTC mania.
The asymmetric truth.
Bond regime is the upstream driver — BTC, equities, and credit follow. Three actionable patterns:
- EXPANSION → BTC mania. Steepening curve + rising real rates = liquidity flood = +30-120% BTC over 12m.
- FLIGHT-TO-QUALITY → BTC bottom catalyst. Acute bond stress is the panic that capitulates BTC. Buy the panic.
- CONVEXITY UNWIND → BTC top warning. AAH ≥ 90% on long-end reopens precedes BTC tops by 1-3 months. Your detector caught Oct 2024.