When the Street's EPS estimates are accelerating upward.
The MU/SNDK pattern in code form. When forward-year EPS estimates rise sharply versus the prior year and revenue growth confirms it, the stock historically outperforms by 12-18% over 6 months (Womack 1996; Givoly-Lakonishok). The system pulls multi-year analyst estimates from FMP and computes the second derivative — is the rate-of-change accelerating?
Why velocity beats absolute estimates
What matters isn't the analyst consensus — it's how that consensus is changing. Markets price the current expectation efficiently; what's mispriced is the rate of revision. When sell-side analysts revise their estimates up systematically, it signals they're seeing positive incremental data they hadn't priced in. The trade is to be in the stock before consensus catches up.
The MU pattern: in 2023-24, sell-side EPS estimates went $0.50 → $1.10 → $1.85 over 90 days. Anyone tracking the velocity saw the move 6-9 months early. The system flags this signature: forward EPS lift > 15%, forward revenue growth > 8%, with rising analyst participation count.
Top 25 by EPS-velocity score
Sorted by composite score: 40% velocity (FY2 vs FY1 lift), 20% acceleration (forward revenue), 15% breadth (analyst upgrades), 15% positive earnings, 10% growth alignment.