Methodology
The VIX term structure is the curve formed by VIX-style indices at different forward tenors: VIX9D (9-day), VIX (30-day), VIX3M (3-month), VIX6M (6-month). The shape of this curve carries information distinct from spot VIX.
Contango (front below back, spreads <0): normal calm state. Steep contango at low VIX = vol-sell carry regime. Backwardation (front above back, spreads >0): market pricing IMMEDIATE stress; historically marks ~80% of equity drawdowns. The reversion from backwardation to contango is often the bottom.
Cross-asset dispersion: VXN - VIX measures growth/tech stress relative to S&P (when positive and elevated, Nasdaq is pricing more risk). RVX - VIX measures small-cap stress. VVIX/VIX ratio is vol-of-vol: high ratio = uncertainty about future vol magnitude.
Sustained inversion: n days backwardated in the last 5/20 trading days. 2+/5 = stress regime confirmed. Reversion from sustained inversion = often the local low.
Source: cdn.cboe.com/api/global/us_indices/daily_prices/ · daily CSV files · history back to 2009-2011 · refreshed every 30 min during US market hours.