| Ticker | Period | Tone | QoQ Shift | Guidance | Confidence | Demand | Margin | Summary | Themes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Methodology · Earnings Call NLP
Each earnings season, we fetch the latest call transcripts for ~30 top S&P names via FMP Premium and run them through Claude Haiku 4.5 to extract:
• Management Tone (-100 to +100): integer score capturing the overall tone — crisis language, hedging, or confidence/strength signals all bake in.
• Guidance Direction: RAISED, MAINTAINED, LOWERED, or NONE. The single highest-signal field in earnings releases.
• Confidence Level: LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH — how forcefully management commits to forward outlook.
• Demand & Margin Signals: STRONG/STEADY/WEAKENING/MIXED and EXPANDING/STABLE/COMPRESSING/MIXED. The two questions every analyst asks.
• Key Themes: 3 short phrases capturing what they actually talked about (AI infra, China headwinds, etc.).
QoQ Tone Shift is the real alpha. A CFO who pivoted from "strong demand" to "choppy execution" shows up here even when the headline tone is still positive. Each transcript is cached in S3 so we can reach back ≥1 quarter for delta.
Regime classification: EARNINGS_STRENGTH (median ≥60, raises ≥3× cuts) · EARNINGS_CONSTRUCTIVE (median ≥50) · EARNINGS_NEUTRAL · EARNINGS_CAUTIOUS (median ≤40) · EARNINGS_WEAKNESS (median ≤30 + cuts > raises).
Source: FMP /v3/earning_call_transcript + claude-haiku-4-5-20251001. Refresh daily 14:00 UTC weekdays.